What a difference four years can make.
Six months removed from the respective tenures of Craig Esherick and Kevin Clark, Georgetown and St. John's were picked for the bottom two places in the 2004-05 Big East polls. The two teams combined for one national TV appearance in 2004-05 compared to 13 for Connecticut alone. With a pair of young coaches at the beginning of their Big East careers, expectations were upbeat for both schools to make the long trek up the Big East standings where each had once enjoyed fame and honor.
In just four years, Georgetown went from the worst in the Big East to first, entering Wednesday's game at the Garden as the #6 team in the nation with a firm hold on 1st place in America's toughest basketball conference. Though not without its flaws, Georgetown enters the game as a clear favorite over a St. John's team that has lost five straight and 11 of its last 14. With just one Big East tournament appearance in the last four years, and staring at 1-6 in the league this season, the recent past has not been kind to St. John's basketball, and neither is the present.
Disgruntled St. John's fans are seeing red over fourth year coach Norm Roberts, but it's not coaching per se that leaves the Redmen on the sidelines. St. John's has struggled to build the depth and recruiting muscle that has been the hallmark of the super-sized Big East. As such, St. John's has been competitive in many conference games this year, only to fall behind late.
If St. John's is going to make a run Wednesday, it begins with Anthony Mason, Jr. Since returning to the team from injury on Dec. 15, Mason has been the team's best scorer, particularly in recent games. Mason scored 29 points in consecutive games against Pitt and Louisville, accounting for more than half the Johnnies' points against Louisville alone. His 43 percent shooting average leads the team, which reluctantly says that the rest of the team just isn't getting it done from the offensive side of things.
Eugene Lawrence returns as the St. John's point guard. While a good passer and assist set-up man, his shooting has tailed off in Big East play, and he is averaging under four points a game. 6-6 D.J. Kennedy has shifted over to guard, with inconsistent results. Kennedy is shooting 35 percent from the field, struggles from outside, and has a 0.54 assist to turnover ratio. Better suited as a small forward, Kennedy is evidence of St. John's depth issues at guard which hurts the Redmen in games with smaller and quicker backcourt players.
An encouraging development for St. John's has been freshman Justin Burrell. A candidate for all-freshman honors this season, his 13.7 points and 6.7 rebounds have been solid, but his recent games have proven less so. Burrell was 3-9 in a loss to Pitt, 2-10 at Louisville. Burrell is not an outside shooter and figures to score on second chance points.
St. John's weaknesses are evident: poor shooting, inconsistent rebounding, and a reliance on Mason to carry the load against teams that can otherwise shut him down. In last years's game between the two schools, Mason was 3-4 with six points in a first half where GU led by one at the break. In the second half, Mason finished 1-5 from the field and the Hoyas won by 24. Without an Avery Patterson or a Lamont Hamilton as he had last year, Mason doesn't have a supporting cast that has risen to the occasion as games have developed.
The Redmen have been a poor second half team. Against West Virginia, tied at the half, lost by nine. Against Pitt, tied at the half, lost by 24. Against Louisville, St. John's trailed by 15 at the half and could not close to fewer than seven. As it was able to do in the last two games in this series, Georgetown's ability to get an early run and punish St. John's via the outside shot (something it has lacked in recent weeks) could help set the distance early between these two teams.
Here's a look at some potential matchups:
Jonathan Wallace vs. Eugene Lawrence. Wallace has been getting his points of late, though not from outside. The school's all-time three point shooter is a deflating 6-20 (.300) in his last three games, including a pair of 0-3 games against Notre Dame and West Virginia. Wallace needs to spot up for the three and not take it on the run.
Jessie Sapp vs. D.J. Kennedy. Sapp continues to impress on both ends of the court--his shooting in the first 35 minutes has been up and down, but his defense is 40 minutes strong. Kennedy is turnover prone and Sapp may be able to get some breaks off turnovers.
Austin Freeman vs. Anthony Mason, Jr.. Freeman gives up size to Mason but not intensity. Georgetown may experiment with different matchups other than Freemen on Mason to keep him off stride, but in the likely absence of DeJuan Summers its options are limited to holding Mason under his average in the game.
DaJuan Summers vs.Justin Burrell . Summers' injury remains a topic of concern and he may not play as much in the game. If Patrick Ewing Jr. gets significant time, his defense also poses problems for Burrell off the ball.
Roy Hibbert vs. Tomas Jasiulionis. Maybe the biggest mismatch Roy Hibbert will face in the conference this year, Jasiulionis has scored only nine points in his last seven games and averages less than one offensive rebound per game. With interior passing, Hibbert should be able to establish himself early and often.
GU bench vs. SJU bench. The Redmen figure to get contributions from 6-2 guard Larry Wright (9.4 ppg), the team's best outside shooter and an excellent free throw shooter; unfortunately for St. John's, Wright is in a major slump, with a combined 1-11 in his last two games. The Redmen will need Wright if they are to challenge, as its bench is generally not producing points in games this season.
Keys to the game:
1. An early knockdown. Connecticut's ability to shut down St. John's down early was vital to a comfortable win. Though St. John's has lost five straight, many were winnable in the second half before things fell apart. Georgetown must establish the tone early and ensure St. John's harbors no false hopes of a upset.
2. Better outside shooting.. Over the last four games, Georgetown has shot only 28 percent from outside. It must improve those totals.
3. Austin Freeman. The steady play of Freeman is due for a big game against a defensively challenged St. John's lineup.
For St. John's to win, it follows the playbook not of the 2004 Garden debacle (where it won with four scholarship players), but a game a year later against John Thompson III's rookie year team. The Redmen jumped ahead early, shut the Hoyas down from outside (4-21), and caught a gift at the line, where it went 28-33 in a 76-67 win. Other than those unlikely set of circumstances, Georgetown owns an advantage across every other statistic, and despite the question marks around DaJuan Summers' return, has enough firepower to put the Redmen to rest in this one.