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There is no such thing as a trap game, or so they say at Harvard, where a group of students performed a statistical analysis to prove their point. But letdown games are real, and Saturday's game with Radford is a prime candidate.
In games where Georgetown has lost to a top 10 opponent, the Hoyas are 19-4 in the following game since 2005 and 46-19 in the Big East era (1979-pres.). While Georgetown is a decided favorite over Radford, the Highlanders served notice in a 68-66 win last week at Virginia Tech, with nine threes that led Radford to its first ever win over an ACC opponent. If it is to earn a similar mark against a Big East opponent for the first time, it demands a better outside shot and an ability to elude a taller Georgetown defense.
The Highlanders will rely on guard R.J. Price and forward Javonte Green to carry the scoring. Price scored a career high 25 points against Virginia Tech and is averaging 20 points per game over his last three starts. A key to this number is outside shooting, where Price was 13 for 28 over that period, accounting for over half the Highlanders' three point baskets. At 5-11, Price isn't afraid to grab rebounds inside (he had seven defensive rebounds against Texas A&M Corpus Christi), but coach Mike Jones needs Price moving up the court on a change in possession, not laying back.
Up front, Green provides the rebounding necessary for Radford to contend in the Big South this season. Green averages 10 rebounds per game and has 25 over his last two games, but is shooting just 5 for 15 from the field. Radford does not have the scoring muscle up front to compete with Georgetown on a size basis, so Green has to have a big game inside for this to stay close. From a 21 point effort in the opener versus Richmond, Green has scored in double figures just once in the Highlanders' last four games.
As numbers go, the Highlanders do not present much of an offensive threat, but tell that to Virginia Tech. RU ranks ninth of 11 Big South schools in points per game, ninth in three pointers, 11th in field goal percentage, but first in turnovers. And while Radford shoots just 30 percent from three point range, they are holding opponents to just 31 percent shooting. Given Georgetown's size up front, three pointers are not a priority in this game.
The Hoyas saw some more positive signs from its freshmen offensively against Kansas, but its frontcourt is a point of emphasis over the remaining three non-conference games. When Josh Smith is on the court, he's formidable inside but if placed in foul trouble, the Hoyas continue to have problems inside. Senior Mikael Hopkins is shooting under 25 percent over his last four games, all at close range. Hopkins needs to refocus on bringing his offensive game in line with what have been solid efforts defensively.
The goals over the next two weeks of games is to compete, but to remain focused on getting exams done--not an insignificant issue considering GU has lost two starters to academics in each of the two previous years. And while it appears that four freshmen are earning their place in the rotation, it's a critical period for two other reserves to find out if they are in the mix for conference season, or consigned to trade stories with David Allen and Riyan Williams on the bench. Each are some questions for this game:
- Reggie Cameron: Cameron's shooting is poor this year (3-13, all from three) and he is capable of a much better effort. Cameron needs some run time to see if he can be more productive inside than out.
- Bradley Hayes: With only 11 minutes this season, the staff needs some run time for Hayes whether they like it or not--teams are going to key on cheap fouls on Smith and Hopkins' proclivity for foul trouble to expose the Hoyas inside. Hayes might need one game this season where he is called upon in a big way, much like John Caprio was at Butler last season. He needs more than two minutes in a game to get some in-game confidence and, as a junior, time is running short.
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